By Umaru Fofana
In this day and age of technology and civic awareness, being in politics – especially at the helm – is like a hen sitting on a hammock. Neither the bird nor the swinging couch is able to rest. From the United States to Europe, from South America to Africa and Asia, citizens are demanding more and more from their leaders, while the leaders are giving them less and less – or are getting more confused and unsure of what to give them in this era of demand accountability and deliverability in leadership.
In the West much of it is over ideology – same sex relationship, who should pay what tax, who and how to fund what type of healthcare, how much control the state should have, immigration, how much sovereignty the country should keep for itself or cede to an international body, rights and freedoms, etc. All of that is because their livelihood and the accompanying utilities such as roads, electricity and water supplies and housing are almost certainly assured.
In Africa, not least Sierra Leone, it is all about bread and butter issues – survival, plain and simple – as epitomised by the lack of jobs, rampant tribalism, nepotism and corruption – assuming the last three are any different from each other.
Following last year’s presidential and legislative elections, there was hope galore even if some of it was hardly based on any tangible evidence. There was hope that corruption which had taken a sinister turn would be tackled, education which was nose-diving would be worked on, the economy which was in austerity would be brought out of the doldrums, the police and courts which had become a travesty would be fair to all, and mono-ethnic politics which was the order of the day would be curbed. It has not quite worked that way.
While this is not a look at the 20-month administration of the government of Julius Maada Bio, it is nice to state that even though there have been unprecedented levels of fight against corruption and investment in the education sector took off almost instantly, the economy is still doing very badly. Businesses are struggling, the people are eating their fingernails, justice is still hard to have, and the few jobs that are available are mostly dished out to party stalwarts who are mostly from one part of the geopolitical divide dominated by the ruling SLPP party.
That, unfortunately, is what set the tone for the New Year, 2020. The struggle for power, in the hope that who controls it controls the jobs and the purse strings. And the fight for the next local council elections in 2022 and the presidential and legislative elections in 2023 will start or move to the next gear in 2020.
The main opposition All People’s Congress will hold their delegates’ conference in January. It is scheduled to be a meeting for the adoption of the party’s constitution which has been amended to include some progressive clauses albeit to bring new controversial ones. But even though that is a significant agenda item all by itself and one that brings fireworks, no one would not be surprised if in more ways than one it became a de facto conference to determine who the party should choose to become their presidential candidate in 2023.
For that, there is no shortage of interested candidates. Dr Samoura Kamara who was last time unlucky is clearly still interested. He has been making the moves. His name resonates. His supporters believe he has the right temperament and qualification for the top job. Most of the others who were interested the last time round have gone into hibernation. But Joseph Kamara is pretty much active.
The former anti-corruption chief who later became attorney general has been playing his cards somewhat. I will return to him in a moment. But such is the nature of Sierra Leone politics that the man who a few years ago was vilified by his party then – the APC – as a liar about his faith, a liar about his academic qualification and a fifth columnist within the APC is now one of the most talked-about to become that standard-bearer. I am talking about Samuel Sam-Sumana. He has not rested since his apparent rapprochement with former president Ernest Bai Koroma – the man who sacked him as Vice President and apparently engineered his expulsion from the party. They seem to be getting on well now. And by the recent meeting in Kono with some of the district’s Members of Parliament, Sam-Sumana will make a triumphant return to the APC at the January delegates’ conference in Port Loko. Indications are that barring last-minute risk analysis or something unforeseen, he will be the presidential candidate of the party – with Joseph Kamara as his running mate. In future articles in the New Year I will expatiate on this tell you those indications and why.
Talking about Sam-Sumana crossing carpet to return to the APC, the party he ran under last year will face an existential threat in 2020. That party – the Coalition for Change or C4C – currently has all but one of the parliamentary seats from Kono District. The loyalty of those MPs will be put to a severe test. How many of them will follow their party leader to the APC is an open guess. Under the country’s constitution they cannot declare for another political party lest that should trigger a by-election. But will their body language and voting be in tandem with the APC or will there be a parting of ways with their former leader? I suspect there will be a split. 2020 promises a lot in this regard.
Some of those C4C MPs will tilt more openly towards the governing SLPP. That will spark the start of the battle for the control of Kono District which has more often than not proved to be a swing bellwether district. Will this political gymnastics of 2020 sound the death knell on C4C?
That question probably also applies in the case of the third most popular party in the country judging by popular votes at the 2018 polls, the National Grand Coalition (NGC). Their leader, Dr Kandeh Yumkella remains the man he has always been – charismatic and brilliant. But does his party still hold the sway it did at this time two years ago? I am not so sure. Many of them – including senior executive officers – have resigned from its ranks and gone or returned to the ruling SLPP party. That may not be surprising in the politics of this country. But it should be worrisome to the NGC in more ways than one. And by the nature of the country’s politics, Dr Yumkella’s intelligence pales into insignificance with voters outside his home district of Kambia, a place he still has a firm grip over judging by the recent council seat bye-election.
Talking about bye-elections the rerun one at the Freetown peninsular was one of the scars on the conscience of our body politic in 2019. The fact that violence was unleashed so badly, despite the crucial nature of the seat, portrayed us as a country with politicians who are prepared to set the country alight and batter our democracy for the sake of political gain. Now the people of Constituency 110 are without a representative in parliament due to that political bigotry and desperation. 2020 will witness the return of that. And the dynamics will not change.
The last quarter of 2020 will witness the midterm presidency of Julius Maada Bio. He will change more into the campaign mood and mode. At the SLPP party delegates’ conference he will become the party leader, de jure and de facto. He will develop and strongman tactic. His cabinet will experience some cracks, especially because the party convention will crown the vice president Dr Juldeh Jalloh as the deputy party leader – sort of going the way the APC are coming out from, and potentially prepositioning him for succession.
In all of this, it will be interesting what the role of the Chief Minister, Prof David Francis will be in the New Year. Will he develop a more conciliatory tone and swagger or will he be heavy-handed with the other ministers? It is fair to say that some of the ministers behave in ways that leave so much to be desired, and they even derail. And a strong hand Chief Minster is needed to re-rail them.
Generally, unfortunately, the politics of Sierra Leone in 2020 will be no different in terms of disrespect for dissenting views, tribal politics and violence. That’s a no-brainer, I know!
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