By Mohamed Jaward Nyallay
Last week, when the ZANU PF War Veterans Association announced that they are cutting ties with long term friend, President Robert Mugabe, it sent a serious message. The message is that President Mugabe is slowly loosing grip on power in Zimbabwe.
ZANU PF is the ruling party of Zimbabwe. The party was instrumental in the liberation struggle in the country until it finally came in to power after securing independence for the country.
The announcement from the veterans came just days after the 92 year old Mugabe announced his bid to re run for presidency in 2018. President Mugabe rose to power in 1980, in the aftermath of a bloody liberation struggle in the country.He fought alongside most of the war veterans and this is why he has a very close tie with them.
Over the decades, most of the veterans were enlisted in the military and in the police and they climbed their way up to be some of the most influential people in the security sector. This has made the army and the police one of the strongest backers of the Mugabe administration in Zimbabwe.
They have constantly been held on the leash with incentives like land, projects and even a welfare fun to maintain their support. The regime has also used the veterans powerful positioning as a tool for brutality and terror on political opponents.
This latest rift puts President Mugabe on the back foot. Government officials have described the more than 500 veterans as traitors and they have promised to launch an investigation. No matter what, one thing that is clear is that the President has lost a huge support base, perhaps the most powerful.
UK based Zimbabwean lawyer Alex Magaisa was quoted in the Guardian this week:
"While Mugabe might do away with the ageing war veterans, a question still remains as to what impact this breakdown in the relationship might have on his relationship with the security structures of the State."
Going forward, this relationship is going to be very crucial. No matter how the investigations end, there would still be a huge split among security forces as to whether they should enforce the President’s agenda in the future.
Perhaps, the worst case scenario would be the security forces backing up the newly established opposition party, Zimbabwean People’s First party (ZimPF). ZimPF leader, JoiceMujuru was the Vice President of the Mugabe regime for a decade (2004- 2014).
Some analyst are saying there are veterans who believe that her cause is identical to theirs- breaking the Mugabe yolk.
Behind all this is huge battle about who should succeed the old man. There is a faction in the Zanu PF party that wants the Vice President, EmersonMnangagwa. The veterans have the leaders of that faction. But this stands is contrary to what top cadre; G40, of the party wants.
The G40 is the most powerful body in the Zanu PF and it is dominated by Youth League members. Their agenda has been to support President Mugabe right to the end and later push the Firstly Lady as a potential successor.
Youth league members have been enticed with money and land distribution projects. Last week hundredsof youths were mobilized and registered for land distribution projects across the country. Some have blasted the decisions as irresponsible and accused the president of using the country as his personal property.
Political analyst Gladys Hlatywayo, was quoted in the Zimbabwean media saying that
"The president has long used the system of patronage as a power retention strategy and it is so embarrassing. She continued lamenting.
"I am personally not surprised by the move to parcel out land to his foot soldiers, especially considering the impending election in 2018.”
There are concerns that by the end of 2018 there would be shanti towns surrounding major cities in the country. This may lead to haphazard infrastructural development.
The move to register youths for lands in the country may be a calculated one or a desperate one. At the moment the strength of opposition forces are growing. This battle is a whole new one for Mugabe and his loyalist. In the past they had to repress voices from outside the party but now the battle is on two fronts; internal and external.
With all this going on, can he retain power? Even if he does, the following question would be,“for how much longer?”
Because the foundation on which this four decades old hegemony has been built is slowly crumbling.
© Politico 02/08/16
