By Kemo Cham
Africa’s COVID-19 pandemic reached a milestone last week when its total number of cases struck the 100, 000 mark.
Even though the virus has now spread to every country in the region, 14 weeks since it was first confirmed on the continent, according to figures from the World Health Organization (WHO), it still represents remarkable achievement.
Both the global health body and a host of independent epidemiological experts had predicted a totally different picture of Africa in this global health crisis. And it was easy to understand their fears, as it were; Africa, the most vulnerable to everything bad – disease, poverty, etc.
Covid-19 was first detected in China in December 2019. As at 22 May, 2020, when the WHO Africa Region reached the 100, 000 cases threshold, with 3, 100 fatalities, the virus had been transmitted in over 200 countries and territories, with 4, 993, 470 cases and 327738 deaths globally. For Africa that represented 1·5% of the reported cases globally and 0·1% of the global deaths, making the continent the least affected region in the world.
“Case numbers have not grown at the same exponential rate as in other regions and so far Africa has not experienced the high mortality seen in some parts of the world,” the WHO Africa Region office noted in a report. It compared the situation in Africa to the WHO European region which had over 4, 900 fatalities when clocked the 100, 000 cases.
“Early analysis by WHO suggests that Africa’s lower mortality rate may be the result of demography and other possible factors,” it states.
“Africa is the youngest continent demographically with more than 60% of the population under the age of 25. Older adults have a significantly increased risk of developing a severe illness. In comparison, in Europe nearly 95% of deaths occurred in those older than 60 years,” it adds.
It must be noted that the doomsday predictions of the effect of Covid-19 on Africa were shaped by its perennial problem of fragile health systems, lack of access to preventive measures, lack of testing capacities, and the vulnerability of the population due to poverty.
There were also the hypotheses around the sensitivity of the virus to ambient temperature and lower rates of obesity, as cited in an article on this same subject by the medical journal – the Lancet – published on May 29.
Whatever it is, what all the experts seem to agree on is that despite its low number of cases of the virus, containment measures being implemented by African countries, including restrictions imposed on movement, must be maintained and strengthened to prevent the realization of the doomsday predictions.
African governments were quick to impose anti-Covid-19 measures, including physical and social distancing.
As a continental bloc, the African Union commendably acted swiftly by endorsing a joint continental strategy with WHO. Through this, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention considerably expanded COVID-19 testing capabilities of its member states. Many African countries went ahead to implement and enforce lockdowns and border closures.
Despite underlying issues characterizing these restrictions and measures, like human rights abuses and the economic impacts, they went a long way in preventing the spread of the virus as had been predicted.
Ironically, some of these Africana governments which rushed to impose restriction when their countries had no Covid-19 cases, are now in a hurry to relax those restrictions when the cases, as small as they maybe, are only increasing.
Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, warned that while all stated factors may have played a role in the low number of cases and deaths of the virus on the continent, there can be no room for complacency.
“For now COVID-19 has made a soft landfall in Africa, and the continent has been spared the high numbers of deaths which have devastated other regions of the world,” she was quoted saying.
She added: “It is possible our youth dividend is paying off and leading to fewer deaths. But we must not be lulled into complacency as our health systems are fragile and are less able to cope with a sudden increase in cases,”
Interestingly, some of the countries reported to be contemplating relaxing restrictions are among those with the largest number of cases on the continent. They include South Africa and Ghana.
Although it’s not among the top countries with the largest number of cases, the way Sierra Leone’s cases have grown suddenly, despite all efforts initially made by the government, should leave everyone worried about reports last week that the Bio administration was contemplating re-opening of places of worship. Somebody should narrate the story of the church in Frankfort, Germany where, despite all social distancing measures observed, one service resulted in at least 107 positive covid-19 cases.
The suspension of congregational worshiping is arguably the most effective measure put in place the National Covid-19 Emergency Operation Center. All the other measures were barely followed and the authorities hardly did anything to enforce them – from overcrowding in public transportation to blatant disregard for restriction on funeral procession, to facemask wearing.
Like the WHO Africa office, the authors of the Lancet article, warned of the potential catastrophe that looks the region in the eye if the situation is not handled properly.
There is still potential for disaster in Africa, especially as countries begin to ease the strictest lockdowns, they wrote, noting that the repercussions of the pandemic could hinder the region’s capacity to minimise deaths and economic disruption.
“Medical capacity within Africa will be rapidly overwhelmed if containment fails, but vertical efforts concentrated on this outbreak threaten other hard-won gains,” it states.
This is backed by a new modelling study cited by the WHO stressing the threat posed to region’s health systems despite its relatively lower number of COVID-19 cases. If containment measures fail, even with a lower number of cases requiring hospitalization than elsewhere, the medical capacity in much of Africa would be overwhelmed, it notes.
The global health body notes that with about half of the countries in Africa experiencing community transmission and with more than 3, 400 health care workers having been infected by COVID-19, it’s important that health authorities prioritize the protection of healthcare workers from COVID-19 infection at medical facilities and communities.
There is also a need to provide enough personal protective equipment to health care workers and raise their awareness as well as increase infection prevention and control in health facilities, it adds.
WHO says despite attaining a “significant progress” in testing, with around 1.5 million COVID-19 tests conducted as of last week, testing rates on the continent remain low. While many countries continue to require support to scale-up testing, in countries like Sierra Leone there is concern around the quality of the testing done.
The world health body warned that there is a need to expand the testing capacity in urban, semi-urban and rural areas.
“Testing as many people as possible and protecting health workers who come into contact with suspected and confirmed cases are crucial aspects of this response,” says Dr Ahmed Al Mandhari, WHO Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean.
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