By Abdul Tejan-Cole
Today, October 23, voters in Botswana, the country dubbed an “African Success Story” and a “bastion of stability and peaceful pluralism” go to the polls for the 11th time since gaining independence from Britain on September 30, 1966.
For all 53 years, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has won every election. It won 80% of the votes in the pre-independence polls in 1965 and its candidate, Sir Seretse Khama, was appointed the country’s first Prime Minister. He became the country’s first president following independence.
The second elections, the first since independence, were held in 1969. Seretse Khama’s BDP won with 68.3% of the votes cast, overwhelmingly beating the Botswana National Front (BNF) which came second with 13.5%. Khama won again in 1974 with 76.6% and in 1979 with 75.2%.
When Khama passed away in July 1980, he was succeeded by his Vice President, Quett Ketumile Masire. Masire and the BDP won the 1984 elections with 68% of the votes winning twenty nine of the thirty four seats in parliament. The Botswana National Front again finished second, winning four seats in parliament and garnering 20.4% of the votes. In 1989, BDP won 64.7% but had a much reduced support in 1994, gaining only 54.7% of the votes compared to the BNP’s 36.9%.
Masire left office in 1998 handing over to his Vice President, Festus Gontebanye Mogae. Mogae and BDP won the 1999 elections with 33 of the 40 seats in parliament, and 57% of the vote. The BNF managed only six seats with 26% of the votes. In 2004, BDP won 44 out of 57 seats and got almost 52% of the votes. Mogae left office in 2008, a year before the end of his term and handed over to his Vice President, Lieutenant General Ian Khama, the second child of the country’s first president, Sir Seretse Khama.
Ian Khama and BDP won the 2009 elections with 53% of the vote winning 44 out of 57 directly elected seats. In 2014, for the very first time, the BDP got below 50% of the popular vote. It won 46.4% of the votes cast but still managed to win 37 out of 57 seats. The newly formed opposition coalition, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) alliance, comprising the three opposition parties – the Botswana National Front (BNF), the Botswana People's Party (BPP) and the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD), won 30% of the votes to finish second and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) came 3rd with 20% of the votes. For the first time in its history, the opposition combined had more votes than the BDP. A split within the BDP was mostly responsible for its relatively poor showing. Claiming that the BDP had lost its principles and values and was no longer democratic under the leadership of Ian Khama, four members of parliament, including Botsalo Ntuane, left the BDP to form the BMD, which later joined forces with the UDC. Khama eventually handed over power to his Vice President, Mokgweetsi Eric Masisi in April 2018.
Today’s election will be the BDP’s toughest electoral challenge. This is probably the first election it is not confident of winning. One of the main reasons for this is another internal problem within the party. The current President Masisi and former President Ian Khama have had a bitter and very public falling out. Khama accuses the President of victimization, abandoning of many of his policies, damaging his legacy, curbing his ex-presidential privileges, using undemocratic maneuvers to win the BDP’s presidential nomination, and witch-hunt in his fight against corruption targeting only his close allies, such as, the once feared head of Botswana's Directorate of Intelligence Services, Isaac Kgosi.
To fight back, Khama pulled several stunts using his allies within the BDP to dethrone the current President. A key Khama ally and former Foreign Minister, Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi’s launched an aborted and unprecedented bid to wrestle the BDP presidency from Masisi. Masisi immediately fired Venson-Moitoi, and she subsequently pulled out of the race claiming the election was rigged from start.
In response to the former President’s maneuvers, President Mokgweetsi Masisi fired all his allies from his cabinet and purged some of them out of the BDP. They included Tati East Member of Parliament (MP) Samson Guma Moyo, who was expelled after he had failed to attend a party disciplinary hearing. He was accused of attending an “illegal” meeting called by Venson-Moitoi in Serowe during her leadership campaign. Former Minister of Lands and Water Prince Maele was suspended for twelve months after he expressed his unequivocal support for former president Ian Khama during a Kgotla meeting hosted by Khama. Two other Khama allies, Assistant Minister of Health and Wellness, Biggie Butale, and Minister of Agriculture, Patrick Ralotsia, Infrastructure were sacked from the cabinet.
Following this move, ex-President Ian Khama quit the BDP, the party his father helped form. He then endorsed the newly formed Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and vowed to help the BPF and other opposition parties remove the BDP from power. The BPF is headed by Biggie Butale, one of the pro-Khama allies fired by Masisi. At the core of the new party are disgruntled BDP loyalists of Khama, Roseline Panzirah-Matshome, Foster Seretse and Samson Guma Moyo. The BPF will only pose a formidable challenge to the BDP in the central region where Khama is currently the chief of the Bamangwato people and has strong tribal influence. Its intention is not to win the election but to ensure that Masisi and the BDP are defeated.
The main opposition party in the last election, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), will also pose a significant challenge to the BDP. However, it has also had its problems. A major rift led to the departure of one of its founding members, the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD). The UDC is now a three-party coalition comprising the Botswana National Front (BNF), the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and the Botswana People’s Party (BPP). The UDC leader, Duma Gideon Boko, is a 50-year-old self-made politician who is making the Batswana political class uncomfortable. He does not come from a long lineage of families known in the country’s politics but enjoys the support of the ordinary citizen and who relate with him. In an article in Foreign Policy magazine entitled “It’s Not Just Elephants That Are Under Attack in Botswana”, the Harvard educated lawyer complained of “having been physically harassed by police, my home raided by tax officials (over a car they had already taken into their possession), and my party’s light aircraft repeatedly impounded by the authorities—which prevents our campaigning in remote areas of the vast yet sparsely populated nation—the days of good governance seem long gone.”
The UDC is also hampered by the fact that most of the MPs who won seats in 2014 under the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) ticket have since left and formed another party, the Alliance for Progressives (AP). Led by economist, Ndaba Gaolathe, the AP currently has five seats in parliament, all of which were won under the BMD ticket in 2014. The 47-year-old George Washington University graduate comes from a well-known political ruling family. His late father, Baledzi Gaolathe, was a senior government technocrat who served as Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning.
Both the UDC and the AP have officially declined to align themselves with the former President or his new party. The ruling BDP has consistently linked the BPF to the UDC and suggested they are working together. Head of Communications for UDC, Moeti Mohwasa, is quoted as saying that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is at the forefront of distorting facts regarding the relationship between UDC and Khama and his party Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF). Mohwasa explained that what was happening was the calling on the electorate to vote for UDC where the BPF has not fielded any candidate. “Why should we attack someone who wants eligible voters to cast their votes in our favour…We do not have a working relationship with the BPF which is why we are competing in some of the constituencies and wards. It is interesting that the BDP had a long relationship with Khama and he was a saint and now that he has dumped their party, he is a bad person.”
The BDP remains the favourite even if with the slimmest of chances. It has the power of incumbency and resources needed to hold on to power. Besides, the departure of the former President may very well help them. Most Batswana remember Khama’s tenure for high unemployment and crime rates, unprecedented corruption levels, deteriorating in the health and education systems, gross mismanagement at the state-owned national flag carrier, Air Botswana, inadequate internal controls and corruption at Botswana Railways, huge debts owed by the Botswana Meat Commission, the closures of the beleaguered BCL Mine and Tati Nickel and the unprecedented shrinking of the democratic space. The BDP may very well say a win for them will bring about the end of the Khama and the Bangwato tribe hegemony. The BDP will greatly benefit from the first past the post electoral system. The multiple opposition parties will ensure that the anti-BDP votes continue to be split.
Whatever the outcome, today’s election will test Botswana’s credentials as a continental pacesetter for good governance, multi-party democracy and efficient economic management. The results may very well end up in the courts and ultimately be a test of the independence of the judiciary. The fact that there are no female candidates in the race and the campaign has been primarily dominated by men despite the increasing cases of violence against women and children is already a major let down. I hope it’s the only disappointment.
© 23/10/19 Politico Online
