By Nasratu Kargbo
National Elections Watch (NEW) has released its Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology following criticisms of the methodology they used to arrive at the projection made about the June Presidential Election, which stated that no candidate met the constitutional threshold to become president and that there should be a run-off.
The press release which was published on the institution’s official Facebook page on the 7th July 2023 explained the PRVT method involved deploying observers to a random statistically representative sample of polling stations.
It explained that on the day of the election, the PRVT observers stayed at their polling stations for the entire day, observing the setup and opening, voting, counting, and closing processes.
“Throughout the day, they transmitted their observations on the process and at the end of the day the official results for their assigned polling station, as documented on the Results Reconciliation Forms (RRF)” a part reads. The release explained that observers were deployed to a statistically representative sample of polling stations, and due to that they independently and impartially projected the official results.
The institution through their release stated that although the Electoral Commission for Sierra Leone (ECSL) is the only institution mandated to pronounce election outcomes, it noted that their PRVT is based on the official results as announced by ECSL polling officials.
Citing the 2018 elections, NEW in their release stated that if the official results are consistent with the PRVT projections, as they were for both rounds of the 2018presidential election, then they are confident that the results as announced by ECSL reflected the ballots cast at polling stations.
“When the official results are inconsistent with the PRVT projections, as is the case for the 2023 presidential election, then it provides evidence that the results do not reflect the votes cast at polling stations”.
The group further explained their representative sample, how their PRVT observers were recruited and trained and how they collected data amongst other things.
Highlighting the number of observers deployed for the 2023 elections, the release stated that the institution trained and deployed six thousand (6,000) observers throughout the country to cover every polling centre. It further explained that out of the six thousand observers, seven hundred and fifty were specifically trained and deployed to a statistically representative sample of polling stations across the five regions and sixteen districts in the country, using the PRVT methodology.
Presenting their key PRVT findings, the release stated that “The results announced for the top two candidates are statistically impossible and no candidate should have met the constitutional threshold of 55% to avoid a runoff”.
It stated that the presidential candidate of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) Julius Maada Bio should have won 50.4% of the vote cast with a margin of error of +/-2.7%, which is between 47.7% and 53.1%. Whilst the flag bearer for the All People’s Congress (APC) should have received 46.5% of the vote with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%, which is between 43.8% and 49.2%.
The release stated that ECSL’s official result pronounced the winner President Bio with 56.17%, which is 3% higher than the upper limit of the PRVT range. It added that as per the result announced, APC got 41.16% which is 2.6% lower than their lower limit of the PRVT range.
Some civil society organizations had criticized NEW’s process and stated that their report which projected that there should be a runoff was a recipe for chaos. However, the group has maintained its position regarding the results.
Copyright © 2023 Politico (10/07/23)
