By Nasratu Kargbo
The Institute for Governance Reform (IGR) has in its Sierra Poll dated 14th June 2023 predicted the outcome of the June 24 elections this year.
The Poll explained that according to the interviews conducted, the Flagbearer of the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) President Julius Maada Bio is projected to win by 56%, which is slightly above the minimum threshold of 55% required to avoid a presidential runoff.
“Out of a list of 13 aspiring candidates for Sierra Leone’s 2023 presidential elections, President Julius Maada Bio is projected to receive 56% of all votes followed by his main challenger, Dr. Samura Mathew Wilson Kamara who is projected to receive 43% of the votes, according to a new SierraPoll survey released” a part reads.It stated that the prediction is consistent with the findings contained in AfroBarometer’s June 2022 survey, which stated that 53% of Sierra Leoneans said that they trust Bio.
The document explained that the electoral landscape has considerably changed since the last SierraPoll forecast in May, emphasizing that most of the changes can be seen in swing areas like Kono, Kambia, Western Rural and Falaba Districts, adding that it is possible for further shifts to occur as campaign draws to a close.
The Poll forecasts an entirely two party parliament, stating that this is as a result of the 11.9% threshold slated for candidates to win parliamentary seats under the PR system. “In Kambia, it appears that a good number of NGC voters have shifted to SLPP reducing the chances that a minority party will be able to get seats in the next parliament”.
SLPP is projected to form the majority in parliament with seventy-five to eighty-two seats which is 56% to 61% of elected members of parliament. It shows that the All People’s Congress could get around 39% to 44% which when translated into seats is around fifty-one to sixty seats. Whilst women are predicted to get 26% to 30% parliamentary votes, which when translated to number of seats, will be around thirty-five to forty seats.
According to the document, the method used to acquire the information in the Poll was face to face interview with respondents, which was conducted from the 8th to the 12th of June 2023. The Poll stated that two thousand four hundred and forty-eight (2,448) respondents were interviewed- all registered voters, 12% of whom are first time voters, 44% of them between twenty-three to thirty-five years, whilst 29% are between thirty-six to fifty-five years, whilst those from age fifty-six and above, make up 15%.
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