By Abdul Tejan-Cole
On July 17, the ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) represented by its deputy chief, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (popularly known as Hemeti), and the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces, formerly Alliance for Freedom and Change (AFC) – the umbrella association that mobilized and organized the post al-Bashir protests – signed a political declaration on establishing the structures and institutions of the transitional period. The four-page agreement consists of six chapters.
The first titled “Guiding principles”, proclaims that the two parties shall work in partnership and goodwill principle and shall refrain from the hostile and provocative speech. It affirms that both parties shall abide by the principles of democracy, human rights and something vaguely described as “the good Sudanese values.” The parties also agreed to solve emerging disputes through dialogue and mutual respect.
The second establishes a sovereignty council comprising eleven members: five selected by the Transitional Military Council (TMC), five civilians selected by the Declaration of Freedom and Change (DFC) and one civilian to be chosen by both parties. For the first 21 months, the sovereignty council shall be led by a TMC member and the next 18 months by a civilian member. This chapter also establishes the council of ministers. It provides that the DFC forces shall select the Prime Minister and that the council of ministers shall consist of a president and not more than 20 ministers. All but the Ministers of Defence and Interior shall be selected by the Prime Minister from the DFC. Defence and Interior Ministries will go to the TMC. The chapter concludes by barring members of the Sovereignty Council, the Council of Ministers and the Governors of the states who serve during the transitional period from contesting the elections that immediately follows the transitional period.
Chapter three deals with the legislative council. The DFC forces will nominate 67% of the legislative council membership, and 33% will be non-DFC members. This percentage is the subject of much contention, and there is provision for it to be changed.
Chapter four calls for the establishment of a national independent investigation committee established “to carry out precise and transparent investigation into the June 3rd 2019 incidents and related incidents of human rights violations committed against civilians or militaries. The committee may seek any African support if needed.”
The fifth chapter lists several crucial tasks to be undertaken during the transition period. They include setting up the policy and the program to achieve comprehensive peace in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan; stopping the economic deterioration through implementation of urgent economic, financial and humanitarian program; carrying out a legal reform program and rebuilding and developing the justice and rights’ system, and ensuring the independence of judiciary and the rule of law. It also seeks to promote the role of Sudanese women in the social, political and economic fields and fight all kinds of discrimination against women and establish mechanisms to prepare for writing a permanent constitution and enact laws related to the transitional period and hold a constitutional conference.
The sixth calls on a number of institutions including the African Union to strongly mobilize the economic, financial and humanitarian support to implement this agreement, and to support the transitional institutions to succeed in achieving its functions and duties. The parties also appealed to regional and international organizations to lift Sudan’s name from the list of states sponsoring terrorism, lift sanctions against it and write off its debts.
The Agreement was signed after lengthy and complicated negotiations between military generals who seized power after the fall of Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir on April 11 and leaders of the pro-democracy campaign whose demonstrations led to al-Bashir’s downfall. General Hemeti who signed on behalf of the TMC heralded the signing as a “historic moment” for Sudan. The Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which is part of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), stated thus: “Today, our revolution has won and our victory shines." Harriet Baldwin, UK Minister for Africa, tweeted that it was a “Momentous day for #Sudan. Today’s agreement is a step towards the change so bravely demanded by the Sudanese people. Everyone must be involved: men, women, young and old, from across Sudan. We will continue to support Sudan and its people throughout the months and years ahead.” The Troika (Norway, the UK and US) welcomed the agreement and looked forward “to engaging a civilian-led transitional government as it works to achieve the Sudanese people’s aspirations for responsive governance, peace, justice and development.”
The agreement is significant as it offers a chance to end months of political crisis. As a result of this agreement, many innocent lives will be saved, and repeated bouts of violent repression will stop. Sudanese were determined to continue with their protests and sit-ins until a transition to civilian rule was achieved. This agreement will hopefully ensure that some sort of normalcy is restored. The political declaration is also significant as under it, civilians will be in the majority in all the transitional institutions even though in the first 21 months, the military will head the sovereign council.
The road ahead is full of many thorns, spikes and potholes. Another agreement that deals with constitutional matters is yet to be signed. Major arguments continue to persist over the division of power between the sovereign council and the cabinet. It has been suggested that some of the military leaders want the sovereign council to have veto powers over all executive decisions. How these issues are resolved may determine how successful the power-sharing government becomes. The TMC which is composed of the national army, the “reformed” Janjaweed now known as the Rapid Support Forces and the Intelligence Security Service, is essentially an extension of al-Bashir’s regime. It procrastinated before signing the political declaration and signed following mounting pressure from the African Union, which had suspended Sudan, to transfer power to a civilian authority in the aftermath of the June 3rd massacre. In the implementation of the declaration, it may find sufficient reasons not to transfer power to civilians when the time is due.
One tricky point of contention during the negotiations was a demand that military leaders should be held accountable for human rights abuses committed on June 3. By all independent accounts, at least 128 people were killed in a government crackdown to break up a peaceful sit-in in Khartoum on that day. The Ministry of Health confirmed 61 deaths. The Sudan Doctors’ Committee said it documented 70 cases of rape. Fingers have been pointed at Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Gen Hemeti, who is the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Whether the transition succeeds or not may very well depend on General Hemeti who previously ran the notorious government-backed Janjaweed militias.
In a BBC piece titled “Sudan crisis: The ruthless mercenaries who run the country for gold”, Sudan expert and executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Alex De Waal, describes Hemeti as “a wholly 21st Century phenomenon: a military-political entrepreneur, whose paramilitary business empire transgresses territorial and legal boundaries. Today, this semi-lettered market trader and militiaman is more powerful than any army general or civilian leader in Sudan. The political marketplace he commands is more dynamic than any fragile institutions of civilian government.” With such immense power, Hemeti will call the shots and may rebel and wage a new coup during the transition particularly if the findings of the national investigation committee implicated him in the atrocities committed on June 3.
Another considerable challenge the transitional government will face is revamping the economy. Three days after the political declaration, inflation dropped from 61% -36%; however, this has not resulted in any dramatic reduction of prices. According to Luka Biong Deng Kuol of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) at US National Defense University, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and University of Juba, “(T)he regime of al-Bashir left a ramshackle economy after its leaders squandered and looted the national resources as revealed by enormous evidence of the unprecedented massive corruption during the 30 years of misrule by the political Islamists. The gold resource that is now the main foreign exchange earner is monopolized and smuggled by armed militias, including RSF of Hemeti. Agriculture that used to be the mainstay of the Sudanese economy and provided employment for the overwhelming majority of rural Sudan has been neglected to the level that it can barely sustain rural livelihoods. The limited proceeds from the oil sector and fees on the oil export of South Sudan will hardly pay the wage bill of civil servants.” The ordinary citizens expect a miracle will be performed and the economy will be transformed overnight.
Kuol also mentions the daunting task of transforming and professionalizing the security sector that has been politicized by the political Islamists during their 30 years of misrule of Sudan. If the Sudanese security sector is not overhauled, the transitional period will witness recurrent coups that may threaten the lifespan of the transitional government.
The challenges for the transitional power-sharing government are immense. If it fails to address them, it will inevitably lose public support and provide an opportunity for the allies of former president al-Bashir to regroup and take over either during the transition process or in the follow-up democratic elections to be held at the end of 2022. If this happens, it will be a sad occurrence for the people of Sudan.
© 2019 Politico Online
