By James Tamba Lebbie
Three successive visits to neighbouring Guinea in May this year left me with the conclusion that that country is indeed on a precarious edge of a political precipice. My last visit (21–23 May 2013) particularly left me scared. I was caught in a political disturbance that literally brought Conakry to its knees.
On 22 May, the main opposition group who are predominantly members of the Fullah ethnic group, had just buried few of their supporters allegedly killed by the security forces during the previous demonstration, and they had returned from the cemetery in an Arab-style demonstration. They chanted and threw missiles at the security forces stationed in the area, apparently to curb any form of disturbances. The situation degenerated into a violent confrontation between the two groups and quickly spread to nearby communities with Hamdallaye and Bambeto among the epicentres of the unrest.
My earlier plans to leave Conakry for Freetown at dawn on 23 May was derailed. After waiting restlessly for several hours in my hotel room, I decided to risk it to the car park with the help of a guide, a local staff of the hotel who speaks Krio reasonably well. The city was almost completely deserted with heavy anti-riot security forces deployed in almost every intersection in the city. There were unconfirmed rumours of an arson attack on a police station at Hamdallaye among other acts of vandalism.
We eventually reached the Madina car park in a hired taxi after using less dangerous by-pass routes. The park was also largely deserted save for a handful of cars waiting for passengers. I was the third passenger for a Peugeot taxi heading for Pamelap. After waiting for over four hours, our number increased to six for a 9-seater taxi. The driver lost his patience and called on his colleague with a much smaller car to take us to the border town.
On our way, the driver who hails from the Malinke ethnic group, one of the largest groups in Guinea, made several interesting comments. He said the Susus had decided stay aloof from the political confrontation between the Madingoes and the Fullahs because under the previous regime headed by the late President Lansana Conte (a Susu), Mandingoes were surreptitiously aiding and abetting the Fullah to undermine peace and stability in the country. He said now that the Madingoes are in power, they are coming to realize the true nature of the Fullahs' thirst for political power.
His sympathy though lay with President Alpha Conde and very much against the idea of the Fullahs gaining political power in Guinea. His comments were insightful even if inaccurate and naïve and I’m inclined to believe such sentiments resonate among members of the Mandingo ethnic group in the country. But this unrest should not been seen as an isolated event in Guinea; rather it is part of a chain of ugly events since the demise of President Lansana Conte that could be seen as signs of an ailing governance system that is characterized by tribalism, deep-rooted suspicion and corruption among other bad governance vices which apparently continued to push that beleaguered country further to the edge.
President Conte himself seized power through a military coup some 25 years ago and had ruled Guinea with an iron fist and systematically narrowing the space for the existence of any opposition. His death in 2008 therefore saw the first real opportunity for the opposition to resurface and flex its political muscle. However, a military coup by junior army officers led by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara following the death of General Lansana Conte dashed opposition hopes albeit temporarily. As a demonstration of how low the impoverished country had degenerated, Guineans welcomed Captain Camara with warmth and dismissed their top politicians as greedy and corrupt. Some seven months into his rule however, the world watched with shock as soldiers tried to brutally suppress tens of thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators during which hundreds were rounded up, brutalized, killed or raped in the process, according a Human Rights Watch report.
An attempted assassination of Captain Camara probably contributed to making his reign short-lived. A provisional government under Sekouba Konate that succeeded Camara eventually supervised the transition to civilian rule in 2010. But Guinea’s first democratic election was controversial and the outcome was suspect to say the least. Some observers even described the 2010 electoral process in Guinea as a “French-Francophonie theft” of the elections for Alpha Conde with the so-called international community refusing to take notice.
Since independence from France in 1958, politics in Guinea has been dominated by the Mandingoes and politics in that impoverished country has been overtly along ethnic lines. President Conde himself promised immediately after the polls to unite the country like former President Nelson Mandela did in South Africa after the collapse of the apartheid regime. However, many Guineans especially the opposition say he has failed woefully in his promise. Therefore, some see the political struggle in Guinea as an attempt by the opposition to write the historical wrongs against the Fullahs who are mostly business people and by extension controlling the country’s economy. And their brutal suppression and marginalization under Presidents Shekou Toure and Lansana Conte over the past five decades has only hardened their resolved to not only participate in their country’s governance system but also to shape its destiny.
At the heart of the current bitter political rivalry between President Alpha Conde and opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo is the persistent delay in the conduct of the legislative poll. President Conde has ruled Guinea as a democratically-elected leader for nearly three years without a parliament, a practice the opposition have described as undemocratic. The delay in the conduct of the legislative poll is also rooted in the delay in preparing the electoral register. According to my source, the government has hired the services of a South African company to review the list but the opposition are suspicious apparently on the grounds that the voter register could be compromised by the ruling party. This is in part because the opposition perceive the relationship between Presidents Conde and South African president Jacob Zuma as very cosy. The opposition, which preferred a French company, have held sometimes violent demonstrations calling for the departure of the company.
Early this month however, President Conde announced 30 June as the date of the long-awaited legislative election. But the opposition have dismissed the announcement. Meanwhile, United Nations special envoy, Said Djinnit has offered to mediate between the two political protagonists, but opposition leader Diallo has only accepted to return to talks on condition that certain of the opposition grievances are addressed, including the postponement of the parliamentary poll.
And with tension mounting over the years because of the conduct of this election, and like Oxford Analytica pointed out in its 19 December 2011 report titled Threats remain to Mano River stability in West Africa which states that ” … inclusivity in government remains a challenge in a region where ethnic, religious and geographic identities remain fault lines of potential conflict. Politicians tend not to resist the temptation to resort to exploiting ethnic divisions during elections campaigning”, this process could well be the tipping point of Guinea with unspecified consequences for its neighbours. ECOWAS and other regional and international organizations must therefore have Guinea on their radar.
