By Abdul Tejan-Cole
On Sunday, September 5, residents of Kaloum in central Conakry woke up to the sound of gunfire. Several hours after and following a deadly gunfight in the Sekhoutouréya palace which resulted in the death of about 22 soldiers, mainly from the Bataillon autonome de la sécurité présidentielle (BASP), they learnt that the government of President Alpha Conde had been overthrown. Many doubted the story's veracity until they saw a video of the captured President circulating on social media.
In the video, an unkempt and haggard-looking Conde was seen surrounded by masked armed soldiers, one of whom asked him if they had mistreated him. This prompted widespread jubilation in most parts of Conakry, including the Bambéto neighbourhood, a prominent opposition stronghold. “Liberté! Liberté! Doumbouya! Doumbouya!” was perhaps the most common shout hailing the leader of the coup. The joyous crowd attacked the offices of Conde’s party and the Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante.
To many Guineans, the overthrow of the President, who loved to be called 'Le Professor' – he is a former Professor of Political Science at the University of Paris-Sorbonne - did not come as a surprise. It had been in the making for a long time.
Against the advice of many, Alpha Conde insisted on and got a third term in office after his second term ended in 2020. In March 2020, he manipulated the laws to win a referendum by a resounding 89%. This led to the amendment of the constitution that allowed him to contest for a questionable third term and he extended the President's term of office from five to six years. Later in the same year, he went on to win an election marred by violence, polling just over 59% of the vote.
Even before 2020, le Professor had long ceased to be the idealist he once professed in the classroom. Sentenced to death in absentia under Guinea's first President Ahmed Sekou Toure, Alpha Conde spent several years in the political wilderness. After Sekou Toure's death, he returned to Guinea and contested the 1993 Presidential election. He finished a distant second to then-President Lansana Conte, polling about 20% of the votes in elections that were less than credible. He lost the 1998 presidential elections. Following that poll, he was arrested and charged with several offences, including recruiting mercenaries to destabilise the state and assassinate President Lansana Conte. He was convicted and jailed for five years. Upon being pardoned by President Conte in May 2001, the Professor once again returned to France.
Following the death of Conte, Conde returned home and contested the 2010 elections. He pulled a remarkable second round victory against Celou Dalein Diallo. Diallo had received over 43% of the vote in the first round compared to Conde's 18%. Somewhat astoundingly and with the support of the military, he overcame Diallo's first round lead to win the second round and become President of Guinea. Le professor professed he would be the Obama of Guinea. Sadly, it was another false hope for one of Africa's wealthiest countries. He gradually became authoritarian. As a victim under Lansana Conte, one would have thought he would have seen the folly of Conte's actions. Instead, he copied Conte's tactics almost to the letter. He arrested and detained opposition and civil society leaders. At the time of the coup, the lead opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo was banned from leaving Conakry. His security forces killed, beat and maimed several innocent Guineans because they simply protested. He repeatedly postponed legislative elections when he felt he would lose them. He was no Obama, more a Mobutu or Mugabe. He believed he was the only one who could save Guinea.
Mamady Doumbouya and members of the Groupement des Forces Spéciales (GPS) sensed and took advantage of Conde’s unpopularity. They claimed they were no longer going to entrust politics to one man; they would entrust it to the people. Quoting the former Ghanaian leader Jerry John Rawling, Doumbouya told Guineans, "If the people are crushed by their elites, it is up to the army to give the people their freedom."
While Doumbouya's criticisms of Le Professor may be legitimate and valid, his intentions are far from altruistic. Both Jeune Afrique and Africa Confidential have reported that the real reason for the coup was a power tussle between senior Mandingo officials in Conde's top circles. Doumbouya realized he was losing out to Defence and Presidential Affairs Minister Mohamed Diané, considered Condé's preferred successor. Diane had orchestrated for Doumbouya and his forces to be transferred to the provinces and had created a rival unit, the Bataillon d'Intervention Rapide (BIR). Doumbouya's GPS was increasingly deprived of resources.
As a result of the coup, ECOWAS and the African Union, who were relatively silent when Alpha Conde manipulated the constitutional referendum and got a third term in office, have suspended Guinea from their ranks. Doumbouya and his self-proclaimed defenders of the people have promised to set up a national unity government. They have already released the majority of political prisoners. Reports indicate that the newest political prisoner, Alpha Conde, has been given the option to announce his resignation before he is released. The stubborn Professor is said to have refused the request. There is also a suggestion that Conde may be allowed to leave the country and go to one of his few friends on the continent, Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso.
The most significant challenge ECOWAS faces will be to get the junta to agree to a credible, transparent, time-tabled transition plan. They are likely to develop a transition plan that will look like Alpha Conde's reelection slogan - apres lui, c'est lui (after you, nar you). Although Doumbouya quoted J.J. Rawlings, known by some of his supporters as Junior Jesus (JJ), he is no messiah. Those dancing on the streets of Conakry will soon be disappointed as they were under previous military rulers, including Moussa Dadis Camara, who promised so much but ended up massacring many of his compatriots. If there is no countercoup down the road, Guineans will be on the street years from now shouting 'liberté' once again when they leave office.
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