By Abdul Tejan-Cole
In a Global Africa piece entitled "Africa's Transformative Leader" published in 2019, I hailed the "miracle happening in Ethiopia" since April 2018 when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took up office. Although I noted that he had enormous challenges, I concluded that "(T)hese challenges are not insurmountable. In one year, he has made Ethiopia a model in Africa. Abiy is a breath of fresh air. There are few of his kind in the continent. He represents the young, dynamic and progressive leadership that many on the continent yearn for. Many are rooting for and praying that 'Abiymania' sweeps across the continent." I was genuinely excited, desperately keen to see him succeed.
I was not the only one. The Norwegian Nobel Committee decided to award him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize "for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea. The prize is also meant to recognize all the stakeholders working for peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia and in the East and Northeast African regions. In Ethiopia, even if much work remains, Abiy Ahmed has initiated important reforms that give many citizens hope for a better life and a brighter future."
2019 now seems like a long time ago. Since then, numerous security and political crises have flared up in the country. The worse being in the northernmost regional state of Tigray. In November 2020, Abiy decided to wage what he called a 'constitutionally mandated responsibility to enforce the rule of law,' with the goal 'to apprehend and bring to justice the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) clique and their operatives.' The TPLF dominated the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) during the rule of Meles Zenawi from 1991 to 2018. Abiy, who is from Oromo, defeated the TPLF leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, for the leadership of the EPRDF.
After the initial successes of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) supported by Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki, the TPLF fought back and inflicted severe losses against the ENDF. Abiy had hoped for a 'rapid surgical operation,' but instead, the conflict escalated and threatened to embolden many other separatist movements in Ethiopia's fragile federation. There is now a stalemate in Tigray.
The ENDF and their Eritrean allies have been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity against the local population. Reports indicate that on 8 – 9 January, the days following Christmas in Tigray, the ENDF massacred more than 100 civilians in Bora villages in southern Tigray after the army sustained heavy casualties in a fight with a local militia. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported that the Eritrean soldiers killed more than 100 civilians in Aksum in November 2020. Ethiopian and Eritrean troops have been accused of gang rape, sexual slavery and other human rights abuses. Eritrea denies all the allegations. The TPLF has also been accused of several atrocities, including a massacre in November 2020 in the town of Mai Kadra in Tigray.
“The Tigray: Atlas of the Humanitarian Situation”, dated September 10, 2021, notes that while "no numbers exist for the total amount of civilian casualties, well-documented cases of 3,074 deaths (by 31 August) indicate that: 8% of the dead are women, and 92% are men." The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, noted that he had "received credible and corroborated reports of reprisal attacks, abductions, arrests, and violence meted out against Eritrean refugees for their perceived affiliation with one side or the other throughout this bloody conflict." Writing in the right-wing Washington Examiner, Michael Rubin exaggeratingly states that Abiy "is among the world's most dangerous men" and warns that "(I)f the world does not take concrete action against Abiy to compel him to stand down on his plan, the question is not if there will be genocide against the Tigrayans, but when."
The fighting in Tigray has caused immense humanitarian suffering. In a joint statement, the EU stated that "(S)even months into the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region, human rights atrocities and the full-blown humanitarian crisis are alarming, currently pushing 400,000 innocent people to the brink of famine and loss of life. This must be addressed immediately. We do well to remember the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, which led to an estimated one million deaths, many as a result of food assistance being blocked. Of the 6 million in Tigray, 5.2 million people are facing hunger and requiring emergency food assistance. With 90 percent of the population in extreme need of humanitarian aid, the stakes could not be higher."
The statement further noted that the "restrictions on access are severely impeding the ability of humanitarian workers to assist the most vulnerable, notably in blocked rural areas, where the crisis is worst. Deliberate and repeated hindrances by the military and armed groups, the regular looting of humanitarian assistance are driving the population towards mass starvation. Using starvation of civilians as a weapon of war is putting at risk the lives of millions...In addition, we are seeing wide-scale human suffering that is entirely preventable. Systematic violence is being inflicted upon civilians, including widespread sexual violence, and extra-judicial and ethnically motivated killings. The population's essential livelihood assets and health services are being destroyed." As a result, the EU announced it was suspending €90 million in aid to Ethiopia over its failure to grant full humanitarian access to Tigray.
Tigray is not the only region in turmoil. Abiy faces crises in most parts of the country. The conflict in Tigray has spilled over into neighbouring Afar and Amhara states. The Amhara Region actively supported Abiy against the TPLF and its troops were said to have committed atrocities. As a result, the TPLF allied with military groups that opposed Abiy's government. In August this year, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) said that more than 210 people had been killed across several days of ethnic violence in the Oromia region. This came in the aftermath of violent protests following the unsolved murder of the Oromo singer and activist Hachalu Hundessa. 300 people had been reported killed in the same region in March. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) occupied several rural districts in the Amhara Region. These conflicts have rapidly increased humanitarian needs and the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) and exacerbated famine. An estimated 20 million Ethiopians require nutritional support. Despite the worsening humanitarian situation, Abiy this week expelled seven humanitarian workers, including the head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) and the head of the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), claiming that they were "meddling" in its internal affairs.
The situation has had a negative economic effect amid the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Ethiopian economy is "expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount." Increased inflation and unemployment have increased resentment of Abiy's government.
Abiy also incurred further international wrath by its attack on prominent Tigrayans abroad, including the WHO Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. The latter will likely gain reelection to his position despite Ethiopia's opposition. Although he recently won reelection and has been sworn in for another five years, Abiy’s human rights record has been seriously dented with the arrest and detention of several opposition leaders.
By his actions so far, Abiy has caused more division rather than uniting Ethiopia, which he says is his goal. His attempts to forcibly grab more power for the central government rather than negotiating the federal arrangement may be speeding up the country's disintegration. Abiy needs to accept the limits of his military's power. He needs to rethink and not ignore calls, including by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union, for a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement.
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Copyright © 2021 Politico Online (08/10/21)
