By Abdul Tejan-Cole
Tomorrow, August 9, Kenyans go to the polls to elect a new set of leaders - president and deputy president, governors, senators, MPs, woman representatives and members of county assemblies.
Four candidates are contesting the presidency. With the greatest respect to lawyer and ordained church minister David Mwaura Waihiga of the Agano Party and the pro-pot candidate and law professor George Wajackoyah of the Roots Party, the election is a two-horse race between 55-year-old current Deputy President William Samoei ArapRuto of Kenya Kwanza Alliance and the perennial presidential election contender, who is 22 years his senior, Raila Amolo Odinga.
Raila Odinga, a former prime minister, is contesting the presidency for the fifth time under the Azimio La Umoja (Declaration of Unity) Alliance. The coalition includes the National Rainbow Coalition–Kenya (NARC–Kenya), the party of Raila's running mate, Martha Karua, and the Jubilee Party of Kenya's current President, Uhuru Kenyatta. The fact that Uhuru Kenyatta is supporting Raila Odinga instead of his Deputy President since 2013 is not shocking to most keen observers of Kenyan politics. Their alliance to contest the March 2013 elections was purely one of convenience.
Following the 2007/8 elections which Raila Odinga lost to late President Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, then an ardent supporter of Kibaki, and William Ruto, a member of Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement, were accused of ethnic-based killings of least 1,400 people and the internal displacement of over 500,000 in the ensuing post-election violence. Both men allied to fight and defeat the International Criminal Court (ICC) case which was subsequently filed against them. Soon after the Prosecutor withdrew charges against Kenyatta and that against Ruto was abandoned in 2016 due to insufficient evidence and what one judge described as a "troubling incidence of witness interference and intolerable political meddling," their rapprochement ended.
Though the end of the alliance of convenience was predictable, what was less predictable was the handshake between the archrivals Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga and Kenyatta's overwhelming support for his once bitter rival. The Kenyatta and Odinga families have dominated politics in Kenya since independence in 1963. Raila's father, Jaramogi Ajuma Oginga Odinga, served as Vice President to Uhuru's late father, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, in 1964 when the country became a Republic. After successfully fighting the British, it didn't take very long for them to become bitter political rivals. In 1966 Jaramogi resigned from the government and went into opposition. He was detained and put under house arrest on several occasions until he died in 1994.
With Jomo and Jaramogi out of the way, their sons continued their rivalry. Raila Odinga spent most of his initial years in exile and prison during the presidency of Daniel arap Moi. Uhuru served in Moi's government and was his anointed successor. Both contested the 2013 election which Kenyatta and his running mate, Ruto, the UhuRuto ticket, won with just over 50% of the vote compared to Raila's 43.31%. Both candidates contested the 2017 election again. Uhuru was declared the winner of the August 2017 elections with 54.17% compared to Raila's 44.94%, but the Kenyan Supreme Court subsequently annulled this result following a challenge filed by Raila's ODM party. Raila withdrew from the October rerun elections, which Uhuru won with a whopping 98.26% of the votes cast.
The two rivals are now political allies. In the Presidential debate, which Raila Odinga boycotted, William Ruto described Raila as a project of Uhuru. He described a Raila presidency as a third term for Uhuru. In the not-too-distant past, this may have been hard to believe. Uhuru has been instrumental in forming and building the Azimio Alliance. He has been active on the campaign trail entirely in support of the Alliance. Most campaign billboards, posters, and advertisements are about Uhuru, not Raila. Uhuru's venom has been acidic and directed against Ruto. In a rally in Mombasa last week, he urged Kenyans not to elect liars. He has repeatedly said that he fell out with his Deputy over graft and that he found his conduct unacceptable. He maintains that he has accomplished more as President of Kenya without the help of his Deputy President, who he says is unfit to lead the country and does not have an agenda for the country.
Ruto has responded in equal measure. He has accused Uhuru of planning to disrupt the elections. He accused Uhuru of using the State machinery to devise secret schemes to suppress voter turnout in his strongholds. He has also accused his former boss of betrayal and dishonesty. Rigathi Gachagua, Ruto's running mate who served as personal assistant to Uhuru, has been equally scathing in his attacks on his former boss, accusing his family of state capture and conflict of interest.
Uhuru's support for Raila is a mixed blessing. It brings with it all the criticisms levied against him over the past nine years. This includes a reputation for trampling on the constitution he swore to defend, his tussles with former Chief Justice Maraga and his failure to fight corruption vigorously. Many of Raila's long-term supporters continue to despise Uhuru and believe he is destroying Raila's brand as an independent, anti-establishment firebrand.
Raila has struggled hard to fend off allegations that Uhuru is the candidate and Raila Odinga is a stooge and a puppet. His opponents, including Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader Musalia Mudavadi, have described "Azimio as a project of the deep state and some people. Uhuru is the patron. He has installed a project Raila…" Raila is quoted as saying Kenyans "know that I am an independent person, that I am a person of conscience, and with very strong convictions." "I cannot be somebody else's stooge or candidate."
He has maintained that his presidency will differ from Uhuru's, especially in the fight against corruption. The Azimio manifesto mentions the word 'corruption' 37 times and states that the cornerstone of their agenda is battling corruption and ensuring efficiency and optimality in public service delivery. His flagship programme, Baba Care, primarily focuses on social protection and transformation and upscaling Universal Health Coverage. Raila's selection of Martha Karua, probably one of a few politicians in Kenya to be untainted by corruption, who has in the past blasted both Raila and Uhuru, was aimed at showing he will be serious in fighting corruption as well as promoting gender equality. If they win tomorrow's election, Karua will make history as Kenya's first female deputy president.
The campaign has been very toxic and divisive. Opinion polls say this is Raila's election to lose. The Nairobi-based TIFA Research gives Odinga a slight lead - 46.7% to Ruto's 44.4%. The NMG poll shows Raila has an 8-point lead 49%-41%. The margin is the same as the Nation poll. A runoff will be conducted if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of overall votes and at least 25 percent of the vote in more than half of Kenya's 47 counties. Most Kenyans and the rest of the continent hope that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission gets it right and delivers a free, fair, credible and verifiable election.
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