By Nasratu Kargbo
Results of a Poll published by the Institute for Governance Reform (IGR) on the 14th of June 2023, have predicted a change in the voting pattern of voters compared to the previous election, highlighting that there would be a lot of cross-voting this year’s General Elections, especially in Freetown.
Dubbed Sierra Poll, its findings according to the researchers was based on interviews conducted from the 8th to 12th June 2023, which showed that many Freetown residents will not be voting for one party for all the vacant positions. “This variance within parties clearly points to a degree of cross-party voting. Meaning, a fair share of Freetonians are not voting a ‘straight ticket’ 4 for 4-, that is, voting for one party in all four positions down the ballot”, a part reads.
The 4 for 4 voting means a voter casts ballots for one particular party’s candidates in the Presidential, Parliamentary, Mayoral/Chairperson, and Councillorship elections.
The data revealed that Freetown has the highest cross-voting as compared to other districts.
It explained that 10% of the Main Opposition’s Presidential Candidate Dr. Samura Mathew Wilson Kamara’s supporters say they cannot vote for the party’s mayoral candidates in the districts across the country, whilst 30% say they cannot vote for the party’s mayoral candidate in Freetown.
The Poll added that at least 25% to 30% of Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) Mayoral Candidate Mohamed Gento Kamara’s supporters stated that they will not vote for parliamentary, presidential, or councilor candidates from the SLPP. The Venn diagram in the Sierra Polls shows that 70% of Gento’s supporters said that they will be voting for his party’s Presidential Candidate President Julius Madaa Bio, whilst 30% said that they will vote for his opponent Dr. Kamara.
Sierra Poll’s second Venn diagram shows that 23% of the respondents who are supporters of APC’s mayoral candidate Yvonne Aki-Sawyer said they will be casting their votes for the presidential candidate of the SLPP, whilst 77% stated that they will vote for the party’s presidential candidate.
“It is essential to note that Samura/Gento’s supporters are 7% more likely to support cross-voting than Bio/Aki-Sawyerr. These variations in levels of tolerance of party supporters for different candidates in Sierra Leone’s four-tier presidential and general elections will continue to shape the race as Freetown heads to the polls next week” a part of the poll reads.
The poll also indicated that as of the time the study was conducted, APC’s mayoral candidate is leading between 44% to 56%. “Since 2007, Freetown has largely voted APC, and Aki-Sawyerr was tipped to retake the City Council in the last two Sierra Polls and is still leading the race’’ a part reads.
It explained that Gento Kamara has recorded a 5% increase since the last poll that was conducted in May and explained that he is polling far above all SLPP candidates that are vying for positions in Freetown, adding that he is polling 10% above his party’s presidential candidate Bio. It also noted that APC’s flagbearer is polling above the party’s mayoral candidate by 6%.
The Poll states that the number of respondents interviewed is two thousand four hundred and forty-eight (2,448), noting that they are registered voters 12% of whom are first-time voters, 44% of them are between the age of twenty-three to thirty-five, whilst 29% are within the age range of thirty-six to fifty-five and those from age fifty-six and above were 15%.
It noted that the margin of error is ±1.98%.
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